What is causing inflation in 2024?

Inflation is a general increase in the price of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It can have a significant impact on the economy and the financial well-being of individuals. Several factors, including supply and demand, monetary policy, and government spending, can cause inflation.

Inflation and recession are two of the most important economic indicators that can significantly impact the economy and individuals’ financial well-being. Inflation refers to the general increase in the price of goods and services over time, while a recession is defined as a period of economic decline characterized by falling GDP, rising unemployment, and declining industrial production. While the two may seem unrelated, they can be closely linked. For example, high inflation can lead to a recession, making it more difficult for businesses to operate and for individuals to afford essential goods and services. On the other hand, a recession can also lead to inflation, as the decrease in economic activity can reduce the supply of goods and services, causing prices to rise.

Monetary Policy and Inflation

Monetary policy plays a crucial role in the inflation rate. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, use monetary policy to control the supply of money in the economy and influence interest rates. If the central bank increases the money supply, it can lead to inflation as more money is chasing the same number of goods and services. On the other hand, if the central bank decreases the money supply, it can lead to deflation or a decrease in the overall price level.

Inflation targeting is a monetary policy framework that aims to achieve a specific inflation rate over a certain period. Central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank have adopted inflation targeting to achieve price stability and support economic growth. Under this framework, central banks use various tools such as interest rate adjustments, asset purchases, and forward guidance to achieve their inflation targets.

Historical Inflation Rate by Year

Interactive chart showing the annual rate of inflation in the United States as measured by the Consumer Price Index back to 1914. The current rate of U.S. CPI inflation as of January 2023 is 296.80.

Who Is Hurt by Inflation?

Inflation can affect individuals and businesses, especially those on fixed incomes or with savings in cash or fixed-income investments. As the cost of goods and services increases, the purchasing power of their money decreases, making it more difficult for them to afford necessities. Additionally, those with debt, such as mortgages and loans, may also be impacted as the actual value of their debt increases with inflation.

Who Benefits From Inflation?

On the other hand, some individuals and businesses may benefit from inflation. For example, those with assets, such as real estate or stocks, may see an increase in value as the price level rises. Additionally, businesses that can increase their prices along with inflation may see an increase in profits.

What Causes Inflation?

When demand for goods and services increases faster than supply, it can lead to inflation as businesses raise prices to meet the increased demand. Monetary policy, as discussed earlier, can also play a role in inflation, as the central bank’s actions can impact the money supply and interest rates. Government spending, particularly when it exceeds the tax revenue, can also lead to inflation as it can cause the government to print more money to pay for its spending.

Another factor to consider is the inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producer Price Index (PPI). The CPI measures the average change in prices of household goods and services, while the PPI measures the average change in prices of goods and services produced by businesses. A low and stable inflation rate is desirable, as it allows for predictability and helps promote long-term economic growth.

It is also important to note that inflation can disproportionately impact specific groups of individuals. For example, low-income households may be particularly affected by inflation as they tend to spend a more significant portion of their income on necessities such as food and housing. In addition, inflation can also negatively impact those living on fixed incomes, such as retirees, as it can erode the purchasing power of their savings.

It’s also worth noting that inflation expectations can affect inflation dynamics. Individuals and businesses may adjust their behavior accordingly when they anticipate that prices will rise. For example, businesses may raise prices in anticipation of higher costs, while consumers may purchase goods and services sooner than they otherwise would avoid paying higher prices in the future. This can create a self-fulfilling cycle of rising prices as businesses and consumers respond to their expectations of future inflation.

How to Protect Against Inflation

One way to protect against inflation is to invest in assets that have the potential to increase in value along with inflation, such as stocks, real estate, and precious metals. Individuals can also invest in inflation-protected securities, such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), designed to protect against inflation. Another way to protect against inflation is to maintain a diversified portfolio of investments to spread the risk.

To mitigate the adverse effects of inflation, individuals and businesses can invest in inflation-protected securities and maintain a diversified portfolio of investments. Additionally, central banks can implement monetary policy measures such as raising interest rates to decrease the money supply and curb inflation. Fiscal policy measures, such as reducing government spending and increasing taxes, can also be implemented to slow the economy and reduce inflation.

How Can Inflation be Stopped?

A combination of monetary and fiscal policies can stop inflation. Monetary policy, as discussed earlier, can be used to control the money supply and interest rates. Fiscal policy, which includes government spending and taxation, can also be used to control inflation. For example, reducing government spending and increasing taxes can slow the economy and reduce inflation. Central banks can also raise interest rates to decrease the amount of money flowing through the economy, which can help curb inflation.

Inflation can also have a significant impact on international trade and exchange rates. When a country experiences high inflation, its exports may become less competitive on the global market, as the prices of its goods and services will be relatively higher than those of other countries. In addition, a high inflation rate can also lead to the depreciation of the country’s currency, making imports more expensive and further exacerbating inflation.

In addition to the above, governments can also take steps to control inflation by implementing price controls, which limit the maximum price businesses can charge for certain goods and services. However, price controls can have negative consequences, such as creating shortages, reducing the incentive for businesses to produce goods and services, and distorting the allocation of resources in the economy.

Types of Inflation

There are different types of inflation, including cost-push inflation and demand-pull inflation. Cost-push inflation occurs when the cost of production increases, leading to higher prices for goods and services. Rising input costs, labor costs, or taxes can cause this. On the other hand, demand-pull inflation occurs when there is an increase in aggregate demand, leading to higher prices for goods and services. This can be caused by factors such as increased consumer spending, government spending, or an increase in population.

Rate of inflation

The inflation rate is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producer Price Index (PPI). The CPI measures the average change in prices of household goods and services, while the PPI measures the average change in prices of goods and services produced by businesses. A low and stable inflation rate is typically considered desirable, as it allows for predictability in the economy and can help promote long-term economic growth.

It is also important to note that inflation can disproportionately impact specific groups of individuals. For example, low-income households may be particularly affected by inflation as they tend to spend a more significant portion of their income on necessities such as food and housing. In addition, inflation can also negatively impact those living on fixed incomes, such as retirees, as it can erode the purchasing power of their savings.

Global Demand Recovery and Its Inflationary Impact

As the global economy continues to recover from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, increased demand across multiple sectors is driving up prices, contributing to inflation in 2024. This rebound in demand is most noticeable in travel and tourism, energy, and consumer goods, sectors significantly impacted by the pandemic.

The resurgence in travel and tourism has led to increased demand for flights, hotel bookings, and related services, pushing prices higher as the sector struggles to ramp up capacity that was scaled down during the pandemic. Similarly, as people return to physical workplaces and resume normal activities, there has been a surge in demand for oil and gas, leading to higher fuel prices that affect transportation and the cost of goods that rely on transportation.

Pent-up demand for consumer goods, from electronics to clothing, further strains production capacities and supply chains, leading to price increases. Retailers and manufacturers who face higher costs for raw materials and logistics are passing these costs on to consumers.

To address the inflationary pressures from global demand recovery, central banks around the world are proactively monitoring economic indicators closely to adjust monetary policies appropriately. They aim to strike a balance between supporting economic recovery and preventing runaway inflation by potentially tightening monetary policies, such as increasing interest rates or reducing asset purchases.

Inflation and Unemployment

Another factor to consider is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. The Phillips curve, named after economist A.W. Phillips, suggests an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation rates. In other words, when unemployment is low, inflation tends to be high, and when unemployment is high, inflation tends to be low. However, this relationship may not hold in all cases, as other factors such as monetary policy, supply and demand, and technological advancements can also impact the economy.

Inflation is a complex issue that can significantly impact the economy and individuals’ financial well-being. To protect against inflation, individuals and businesses can invest in inflation-protected securities and maintain a diversified portfolio of investments. Central banks and governments can also implement monetary and fiscal policy measures to curb inflation and promote long-term economic growth. 

Understanding how inflation can affect your taxes is crucial for making informed financial decisions. By keeping an eye on the new tax brackets each year, you can ensure that you’re paying only what you have to. One option to consider is a gold IRA if you’re interested in learning more about protecting your wealth from inflation and stock market volatility. A gold IRA is a type of individual retirement account that allows you to invest in physical gold, silver, and other precious metals.

If you’re interested in learning more about gold IRAs and how they may fit into your overall financial plan, contact American Bullion today at 1-800-465-3472. We can provide the information and resources you need to make an informed decision about your future.